NBA Finals Game 6 Predictions

Warriors vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 6 Picks: Can Golden State End the Series?

The Boston Celtics look to force a Game 7 when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday.

The Celtics stormed back in the third quarter of Game 5 but ultimately fell short and the Warriors won 104-94 on Monday. Here’s a complete breakdown for Game 6, including betting odds and free NBA picks.

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

Thursday, June 16, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at TD Garden

The Celtics opened at -3.5 at BetOnline and the total has been set at 210. FiveThirtyEight has the Celtics as 7-point home favorites, projecting them to win 75 percent of the time. There’s a massive 3.5-point gap between the projections and the actual odds, should we take the home team to bounce back and cover or hammer the total? 

Projected Starting Lineups and Roster

Golden State Warriors

*Notates expected starter

C: Kevon Looney*, Jonathan Kuminga

PF: Draymond Green*, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Andre Iguodala
SF: Andrew Wiggins*, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica

SG: Klay Thompson*, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee
PG: Stephen Curry*, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody

Boston Celtics

*Notates expected starter *

C: Robert Williams III*, Daniel Theis

PF: Al Horford*, Grant Williams, Luke Kornet
SF: Jayson Tatum*, Aaron Nesmith, Sam Hauser

SG: Jaylen Brown*, Payton Pritchard, Nik Stauskas
PG: Marcus Smart*, Derrick White

Team Leaders in the Playoffs

Golden State Warriors: 

  • Stephen Curry: 27.0 points, 5.8 assists and 5.1 rebounds

  • Klay Thompson: 19.4 points and 3.9 rebounds

  • Jordan Poole: 17.0 points and 3.9 assists

  • Andrew Wiggins: 16.4 points and 7.6 rebounds

Boston Celtics: 

  • Jayson Tatum: 26.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists

  • Jaylen Brown: 22.6 points and 6.9 rebounds

  • Marcus Smart: 15.8 points, 5.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds  

Betting Trends

The Warriors are:

  • 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall

  • 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600

  • 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning straight up record

  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game

  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog

The Under is:

  • 13-3 in Golden State's last 16 games against a team with a winning straight up record

  • 5-2 in Golden State's last seven games as an underdog

  • 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Boston

  • 19-7 in the last 26 meetings

How to Bet This Game

The Celtics turned the ball 18 times in Game 5, which pushed them to the brink of elimination. Jayson Tatum explained it best: “We’re hard to beat when we don’t turn the ball over. And, clearly, we’re easy to beat when we do turn the ball over.”

Things need to change if the Celtics want to force a Game 7. As Al Horford said after Game 5: “Our backs are against the wall. This is the time we look each other in the eye and figure it out… There’s no tomorrow.” 

I strongly feel that the Warriors needed the Game 4 victory on Monday in order to win this series. The Celtics are the better team, but because of Stephen Curry’s explosive scoring assault the Warriors stole that game. Momentum now has fully swung in favor of Golden State. Jayson Tatum has to empty the clip in Game 6… If Boston loses, he has to make sure it will be in a Kobe type beat only.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are one of the most natural and lethal pairings in league history. If you swarm Steph and leave Klay… he needs a second and the Celtics are giving him three. Teams have had to pick their poison between Curry and Thompson for years and that’s what happened on Monday.

The Celtics tried to make other players beat them, but the game is about a bucket. If the Celtics are not getting them, none of that matters. You can’t live by 3-pointers always and have so many turnovers.

The X-Factor in Game 6 will be Andrew Wiggins. He is elite in his role, an aggressive finisher and slasher who can shoot from midrange, hit open 3-pointers and defend the other team’s best guy. 

Wiggins and Jordan Poole bring a burst of athleticism, energy and scoring outside of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. TALENT wise, Andrew Wiggins is on a similar level as guys like Jayson Tatum and Brandon Ingram. As far as skill, aggression, slashing ability and shot creation, Wiggins can compete with anyone, he has it all. This league is about situations. The eye test never fails!

Like I said before, the NBA is all about situations, most narratives are just fluff. When a player is laid back it doesn’t mean that he has “no heart.” Anyone who hits 24 points per game at 21 years old is an excellent player. The environment impacts effort. Look for Wiggins to be a difference-maker again and keep the Warriors in a low-scoring Game 6.

NBA Picks: Warriors +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports andUnder 210 (-105) at Bovada

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