Ruoff Mortgage 500 (Phoenix) Predictions

Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix, 3/12/23 NASCAR Betting Prediction & Odds

With NASCAR heading to Phoenix Raceway for the Ruoff Mortgage 500 on Sunday afternoon, which drivers offer bettors the best value when it comes to claiming the checkered flag?

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Race Details

Date: Sunday, March 12, 2023

Time: 2:30 p.m. ET


Track: Phoenix Raceway

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Betting Odds

Kyle Larson is the current favorite at +350, followed by Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and William Byron at +800, respectively. Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney are both +1000 to win, respectively, followed by Ross Chastain, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch at +1200, respectively. Martin Truex Jr., meanwhile, is +1500, followed by Tyler Reddick at +2000 and Alex Bowman at +2500.

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Predictions

OPTION 1: Kevin Harvick (+1000)

With nine wins here, Harvick loves racing at Phoenix Raceway. Those nine victories are more than double any other driver in the field and with this being his last season of full-time Cup Series racing, I wouldn’t be surprised if he added his 10th win at Phoenix this afternoon.

OPTION 2: Denny Hamlin (+800)

Similar story here with Hamlin as with Harvick: Hamlin has 11 top-10 finishes in his last 14 starts at Phoenix, which includes five top-5 finishes in his last eight trips to the desert. Toyotas weren’t reliable last year at Phoenix, but I’m willing to overlook at with Hamlin.

OPTION 3: Aric Almirola (+10000)

I didn’t get too crazy with my first two selections, so how about a long shot to consider? Almirola has excelled at short tracks over the years, finishing inside the top 10 in 17 of the 35 races at the type of track that he’ll run on today. In fact, he owns a win at New Hampshire and his two best tracks by average finish – with a minimum of three starts – are short, flat ovals. Those two? Richmond, with an average finish of 14.9, and…you guessed it: Phoenix, with an average finish of 14.4. At the very least, consider Almirola for your head-to-head props.

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